The Revealing of a Nation— Why Early Turnout Matters

The election is 13 days away.

The election is 13 days away.

I find myself repeating how close we are to an election that seems of paramount importance, perhaps more than any election in the recent and distant past. This has been made clear to us in a variety of ways — through the headlines, our social media feeds, and the omnipresence of campaign ads found in our mailboxes.

So each morning, many of us wake up, not unlike a child counting down the days to Christmas, their thoughts of presents, and cookies, and Christmas jingles. We say to our significant others, or our children, or our parents:

The election is 13 days away.

The metaphor ends there though, as there are no presents or jingles — but rather the previously mentioned campaign ads, the sounds of the commander in chief shouting through twitter and our airwaves, and the haunting intrusion of politics into nearly every aspect of American life. The jingle is not a song, but rather an inescapable hum, a sound of a writhing past, unwilling or unable to make peace with the present.

And most importantly, the election is not 13 days away. It is happening now.

As of this article’s writing, over 41 million people have voted, far and away a record at this point in an election, and elections professor Michael McDonald has argued that 2020 may bring a “voter turnout storm.” No matter the spin, it is clear — voters are more enthusiastic to vote than ever before.

There are many ways to look at voter turnout. The traditional logic tends to argue that high turnout is beneficial towards dems, with many pointing to Barack Obama’s 2008 election as a data point of great importance.

But 2020, might be different.

Dhrumil Mehta, writing at 538.com, suggests that the benefits of high turnout in the current landscape is, at least partially, state dependent — as states such as Wisconsin, Michigan, and Georgia (a surprise for many!) are more likely to have non-voters that lean democratic, while states such as Florida and Pennsylvania are more likely to benefit republicans if nonvoters are taken into account.

That is to say, if in 13 days, when the hum of the election quiets, a likely role in that silence will be voter turnout, but at this time, we just don’t know where voters will go.

These findings aren’t likely to comfort, well, anyone. Florida is of critical importance to both the Biden and Trump campaign, and while Georgia is exciting many democrats right now, a rightful sense of trepidation persists as a result of 2018, in which democratic gubernatorial candidate Stacey Abrams lost amidst concerns of voter suppression.

However, while concerns of voter suppression are certainly real, an overwhelming amount of evidence says that there is simply no evidence of widespread voter fraud. And when the dust settles, history may show that there has been no election like this one either.

While the 2016 election brought a wave of newfound interest in politics to the American populace, and turnout in that election was certainly high, the fact remains that we may be looking at the highest amount of turnout ever. The question becomes: What does it mean that more Americans than ever are voting? And what does it say about us as a nation? Lastly, what do we say back to a nation when it overwhelmingly says “this is what we want”!

And more importantly, when it says: This is who we are.

In just 13 days, the answers to those questions will become clearer (although perhaps not entirely clear, as a winner may not be declared for a couple of weeks post-election). If, as increasingly seems to be the case, voter turnout remains high, and the nation somehow eclipses the highest voter turnout in history (45% of the population), then something more important than Donald Trump or Joe Biden becoming president becomes clear, a claim of unmistakable important: This. Is. Who. We. Are.

It is for this reason, that many Americans are nervous. Underneath all of the punditry, all of the discourse on civil and human rights, all of the ads and the “donate today!” texts, is the unequivocal fear of a nation, that what we are, and who we are, is not what we thought. It is an intrusion into the psyche of the nation when our collective impulses become clearer, when policy and values eclipse, and our perception of the world is torn asunder.

If 2016 represented a step in this unmasking of a nation, 2020 stands to be the full reveal. The comfort and dread are both paradoxically present, intertwined in the moment, fully ready to be unwound.

It is voter turnout that will reveal the results of our impulses. Are we a nation capable of unification? Are we a nation where truth and facts matter, or are even discernible? Are we, collectively, able to admit mistakes?

And if comfort and dread are currently in a deadlock, I lean towards the comfort of knowing that voters are coming out in droves. When the moment comes into fruition, and just as when we make our way down to the stairs to the well-lit Christmas tree, eyes gazing over a mountain of presents, the possibilities of what will be, turning into what has become. Voters are turning out everywhere. Disenfranchisement seems to have been partially disturbed by a wide expansion of mail-in and early voting. The likelihood that not only will we get an accurate result, but an enthusiastic one, increase by the day.

However, that isn’t to say that the election is going to be perfectly clean either. Just last week, In Baldwin Park, CA, a democratic stronghold, an official drop box was found on fire, damaging ballots in the process. Other acts, both accidental and purposeful, have damaged some faith in the election process, such as when a postal worker threw away hundreds of blank ballots.

Despite all of this though, the anxiety and the nervous humming of a fractured nation, the nation rages on (not unlike the coronavirus that continues to plague the nation, and the news). For instance, many states are experiencing wavelike turnout, with Texas leading the way with 60% of Texans already having voted (as a percentage of 2016 turnout).

It is perhaps turnout that matters most. When republicans keep the presidency and the senate, or if the democrats become the majority and win the presidency — they will point to the overwhelming numbers that are becoming clearer. They are likely to say “they are doing what the nation wants,” pointing to the 70 or 80(!) million people that voted for their agenda. Every issue on the political docket will be examined through a differing lens, in which both the populace and the politicians that lead it can look at the number of votes, knowing that a greater percentage of the nation than ever has stamped their approval of the agenda.

This, is the root of the comfort or dread. The coming to terms with who and what we are.

Just as Christmas (65 days away!) will be unlike any other our nation has experienced, this election will do the same. However, just as a child opens their presents — revealing a look of joy or disappointment as the fantasy of expectations meets reality, Americans everywhere will face the fact that our deepest, and perhaps darkest, impulses are to be revealed.

The hum beats on.

The election is 13 days away.